VA-02: A Pick-Up Miss

(A solid synopsis of an opportunity lost – promoted by James L.)

VA-02 was a target seat this year for a Democratic Party takeover of the House. Freshman Thelma Drake (R-Norfolk) seemed ripe to topple. After Iraq War Veteran David Ashe (D), who lost to Drake in ’04 55-45%, dropped out of the race to pave the way for Virginia Beach Commissioner of Revenue Phil Kellam (D), things were looking pretty good. Kellam, member of a well known Virginia Beach Democratic political family, was the only Citywide elected Democratic Official, this city accounts for approximately 71% of the District’s population. Drake hails from the smaller though Democratic leaning Norfolk. Virginia Beach is historically Republican at both the National & Local level, though Gov. Tim Kaine (D) narrowly carried the city in 2005 and carried the district by 3.02%, former Gov. Mark Warner came within 0.15% of carrying the District in 2001. Besides the City of Viginia Beach, the District includes 23 (+ 2 AT/CV) Precincts in the City of Norfolk, 12(+2 A/T) precincts in the City of Hampton  and the Eastern Shore Counties of Accomack & Northampton.  (More after the flip.)

In my quest to discover why Kellam was unable to unseat Drake in a District I had called home for almost two decades, I did a little research and located two websites: Not Larry Sabato and Vivian J. Paige of Norfolk.
The links will lead you to not only their analysis of what happened here but blog comments from those even closer to the ground or with a differing perspective.
My personal take was re-affirmed on the following points:
1. The Kellam Political dynasty is not a reliably powerful entity and is unknown to many of the transient voters in the Distict, read: of little impact.
2. Kellam avoided debates with Drake after his initial and only debate with Drake in mid-June. His performance in that debate was perceived as “unsteady” by the press.
3. Grassroots/Ground Support was too light.
4. Kellam failed to clearly delineate himself as much different from Drake politically & ideologically. Granted in this conservative leaning-Military heavy District that might seem like a good thing but I don’t think it worked to Kellam’s advantage in the type of Wave year we just saw.
5. Momentum damage from disclosures about Kellam’s past.
6. Failure to secure major newspaper endorsement in the District and failure to dent the potenially vulnerable Drake in the press.
7. Lack of coordination with VA Dem Party major leaders for campaign support.
8. The RNC Robocalls against both Kellam & Webb.

Take a look at these links and the information contained within and see what you think.

A look back at the 2nd Congressional District
http://notlarrysabat…

Kellam: the turning pointhttp://vivianpaige.w…

Thanks to both those sites and the Commentators for dissemination of this information.
Election Results VA-02
2004 Pres
Kerry-D  101,576 41.53% 
Bush-R 141,097 57.69%
2005 Gov
Kilgore-R 64,955 46.79% 
Kaine-D 69,153 49.81%

2006 Sen
Allen-R 89,145 51.04% 
Webb-D 83,268 47.67%

2006 VA-02
Drake-R 88,777  51.27%
  Kellam-D  83,901  48.45%

Congressional District Map Link:
http://en.wikipedia….

 Loading ...